Improving ecological forecasts using model and data constraints

Terrestrial ecosystems are essential to human well-being, but their future remains highly uncertain, as evidenced by the huge disparities in model projections of the land carbon sink. The existence of these disparities despite the recent explosion of novel data streams, including the TRY plant traits database, the Landsat archive, and global eddy covariance tower networks, suggests that these data streams are not being utilized to their full potential by the terrestrial ecosystem modeling community. Therefore, the overarching objective of my dissertation is to identify how these various data streams can be used to improve the precision of model predictions by constraining model parameters. In chapter 1, I use a hierarchical multivariate meta-analysis of the TRY database to assess the dependence of trait correlations on ecological scale and evaluate the utility of these correlations for constraining ecosystem model parameters. I find that global trait correlations are generally consistent within plant functional types, and leveraging the multivariate trait space is an effective way to constrain trait estimates for data-limited traits and plant functional types. My next two chapters assess the ability to measure traits using remote sensing by exploring the links between leaf traits and reflectance spectra. In chapter 2, I introduce a method for estimating traits from spectra via radiative transfer model inversion. I then use this approach to show that although the precise location, width, and quantity of spectral bands significantly affects trait retrieval accuracy, a wide range of sensor configurations are capable of providing trait information. In chapter 3, I apply this approach to a large database of leaf spectra to show that traits vary as much within as across species, and much more across species within a functional type than across functional types. Finally, in chapter 4, I synthesize the findings of the previous chapters to calibrate a vegetation model's representation of canopy radiative transfer against observed remotely-sensed surface reflectance. Although the calibration successfully constrained canopy structural parameters, I identify issues with model representations of wood and soil reflectance that inhibit its ability to accurately reproduce remote sensing observations

Cutting out the middleman: calibrating and validating a dynamic vegetation model (ED2-PROSPECT5) using remotely sensed surface reflectance

Ecosystem models are often calibrated and/or validated against derived remote sensing data products, such as MODIS leaf area index. However, these data products are generally based on their own models, whose assumptions may not be compatible with those of the ecosystem model in question, and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we develop an alternative approach whereby we modify an ecosystem model to predict full-range, high spectral resolution surface reflectance, which can then be compared directly against airborne and satellite data. Specifically, we coupled the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT 5) and a simple soil reflectance model. We then calibrated this model against reflectance observations from the NASA Airborne VIsible/InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration successfully constrained the posterior distributions of model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types. The calibrated model was able to accurately reproduce surface reflectance and leaf area index for sites with highly varied forest composition and structure, using a single common set of parameters across all sites. We conclude that having dynamic vegetation models directly predict surface reflectance is a promising avenue for model calibration and validation using remote sensing data.https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2020-324/gmd-2020-324.pdfFirst author draf

A community convention for ecological forecasting: output files and metadata

This document summarizes the open community standards developed by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI) for the common formatting and archiving of ecological forecasts and the metadata associated with these forecasts. Such open standards are intended to promote interoperability and facilitate forecast adoption, distribution, validation, and synthesis. For output files EFI has adopted a three-tiered approach reflecting trade-offs in forecast data volume and technical expertise. The preferred output file format is netCDF following the Climate and Forecast Convention for dimensions and variable naming, including an ensemble dimension where appropriate. The second-tier option is a semi-long CSV format, with state variables as columns and each row representing a unique issue date time, prediction date time, location, ensemble member, etc. The third-tier option is similar to option 2, but each row represents a specific summary statistic (mean, upper/lower CI) rather than individual ensemble members. For metadata, EFI expands upon the Ecological Metadata Language (EML), using additional Metadata tags to store information designed to facilitate cross-forecast synthesis (e.g. uncertainty propagation, data assimilation, model complexity) and setting a subset of base EML tags (e.g. temporal resolution, output variables) to be required. To facilitate community adoption we also provides a R package containing a number of vignettes on how to both write and read in the EFI standard, as well as a metadata validator tool.First author draf

Permafrost Measurements Best Practice: GCW’s contribution to standardization of global observations

The Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW), in the context of the framework of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), published the Measurement of Cryospheric Variables, Volume II of the Guide to Instruments and Methods of Observation in 2018, in which best practice for observations of snow parameters was included. As a follow-up effort, measurement best practices for the other cryosphere components are under development, including permafrost and seasonally frozen ground. The measurement best practice for permafrost aims to define reference methods for the configuration and ongoing operation of stations for in situ observations in high mountains and polar regions. It will: address gaps in the existing permafrost monitoring systems, define methods for improving traceability and comparability, recommend instrumental characteristics and provide measurements uncertainty evaluation. A further objective is to support capacity building of countries in terms of developing a permafrost observation network. A Task Team within the framework of GCW was established, to lead the development and publication of a complete guide to the measurements of permafrost variables. The documents in preparation will be coordinated with the ongoing revision of Products and Requirements of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Permafrost Essential Climate Variable (ECV), including existing variables measured by the GTN-P (Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost). Further, the needs of developing Essential Arctic Variables (EAV) and Shared Arctic Variables (SAV) identified at the Arctic Observing Summit (AOS) are considered. The work will be based on existing methodologies, promoting and recommending methods to improve data reliability and traceability, also for the implementation of new stations

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response

Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs' global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs. Our work uses experiments which mirror those found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which focuses on complex Earth system and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Using both scenario-based and idealised experiments, we examine RCMs' global-mean temperature response under a range of forcings. We find that the RCMs can all reproduce the approximately 1 ∘C of warming since pre-industrial times, with varying representations of natural variability, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. We also find that RCMs can emulate the global-mean temperature response of CMIP models to within a root-mean-square error of 0.2 ∘C over a range of experiments. Furthermore, we find that, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenario pairs that share the same IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)-consistent stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing, the RCMs indicate higher effective radiative forcings for the SSP-based scenarios and correspondingly higher temperatures when run with the same climate settings. In our idealised setup of RCMs with a climate sensitivity of 3 ∘C, the difference for the ssp585–rcp85 pair by 2100 is around 0.23∘C(±0.12 ∘C) due to a difference in effective radiative forcings between the two scenarios. Phase 1 demonstrates the utility of RCMIP's open-source infrastructure, paving the way for further phases of RCMIP to build on the research presented here and deepen our understanding of RCMs

Liana optical traits increase tropical forest albedo and reduce ecosystem productivity

Environmental Biolog

Beyond ecosystem modeling: a roadmap to community cyberinfrastructure for ecological data‐model integration

In an era of rapid global change, our ability to understand and predict Earth's natural systems is lagging behind our ability to monitor and measure changes in the biosphere. Bottlenecks to informing models with observations have reduced our capacity to fully exploit the growing volume and variety of available data. Here, we take a critical look at the information infrastructure that connects ecosystem modeling and measurement efforts, and propose a roadmap to community cyberinfrastructure development that can reduce the divisions between empirical research and modeling and accelerate the pace of discovery. A new era of data‐model integration requires investment in accessible, scalable, transparent tools that integrate the expertise of the whole community, including both modelers and empiricists. This roadmap focuses on five key opportunities for community tools: the underlying foundationsof community cyberinfrastructure; data ingest; calibration of models to data; model‐data benchmarking; and data assimilation and ecological forecasting. This community‐driven approach is key to meeting the pressing needs of science and society in the 21st century

The influence of canopy radiation parameter uncertainty on model projections of terrestrial carbon and energy cycling.

Reducing uncertainties in Earth System Model predictions requires carefully evaluating core model processes. Here we examined how canopy radiative transfer model (RTM) parameter uncertainties, in combination with canopy structure, affect terrestrial carbon and energy projections in a demographic land-surface model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). Our analyses focused on temperate deciduous forests and tested canopies of varying structural complexity. The results showed a strong sensitivity of tree productivity, albedo, and energy balance projections to RTM parameters. Impacts of radiative parameter uncertainty on stand-level canopy net primary productivity ranged from ~2 to > 20% and was most sensitive to canopy clumping and leaf reflectance/transmittance in the visible spectrum (~400-750 nm). ED2 canopy albedo varied by ~1 to ~10% and was most sensitive to near-infrared reflectance (~800-1200 nm). Bowen ratio, in turn, was most sensitive to wood optical properties parameterization; this was much larger than expected based on literature, suggesting model instabilities. In vertically and spatially complex canopies the model response to RTM parameterization may show an apparent reduced sensitivity when compared to simpler canopies, masking much larger changes occurring within the canopy. Our findings highlight both the importance of constraining canopy RTM parameters in models and valuating how the canopy structure responds to those parameter values. Finally, we advocate for more model evaluation, similar to this study, to highlight possible issues with model behavior or process representations, particularly models with demographic representations, and identify potential ways to inform and constrain model predictions

Calcium and Aluminum Cycling in a Temperate Broadleaved Deciduous Forest of the Eastern Usa: Relative Impacts of Tree Species, Canopy State, and Flux Type

Ca/Al molar ratios are commonly used to assess the extent of aluminum stress in forests. This is among the first studies to quantify Ca/Al molar ratios for stemflow. Ca/Al molar ratios in bulk precipitation, throughfall, stemflow, litter leachate, near-trunk soil solution, and soil water were quantified for a deciduous forest in northeastern MD, USA. Data were collected over a 3-year period. The Ca/Al molar ratios in this study were above the threshold for aluminum stress (500 examined). This study supplies new data on Ca/Al molar ratios for stemflow from two common deciduous tree species. Future work should examine Ca/Al molar ratios in stemflow of other species and examine both inorganic and organic aluminum species to better gauge the potential for, and understand the dynamics of, aluminum toxicity in the proximal area around tree boles